As promised in a post from Saturday, I took Jeff Sagarin's ideal single-class state tournament sectional lineup, made only minor modifications (more on that in a minute), and played out a hypothetical single-class state tournament using calpreps.com's game predictor.
Suffice it to say that there weren't really any surprises. The tournament tilted heavily in favor of the larger schools in Class 4A, and to a smaller extent, 3A. Out of the 64 sectionals, 56 were won by schools from the two largest classes, including 35 by Class 4A schools. Five were won by 2As, and Class A schools claimed a mere 3 titles.
Before you cite this as a vindication for those who support the continued existence of class basketball, keep in mind two things:
1) If calpreps.com's predictor had been around in past years, it's doubtful that Milan would have been selected to win the 1954 state title, or Plymouth in 1983. (The 1954 Milan Indians is the team around which the movie "Hoosiers" is based, for those of you reading this outside Indiana.) In other words, the predictor does not take into account injuries, fatigue or other intangibles like heart and effort. The predictor only takes into account the cold statistical reality of Team A and Team B.
2) Since the advent of class hoops in Indiana, there is now even less incentive for smaller schools to schedule larger schools, and vice versa. Loogootee – a now-Class A school who went all the way to the state championship game in the single-class system in 1975 - once played schools from Evansville and Bloomington regularly, and were tougher for it. No longer. By and large, smaller schools in Indiana aren't cutting their teeth on a diet of larger schools, which reduces their strength of schedule by a great deal, so when these games played out, there were only a few instances in which the smaller school defeated the larger school. If schools scheduled as they did in the past, when there was incentive for a small school to toughen up its schedule in preparation for the state tournament, some of these outcomes might have turned out differently.
Anyway, several notes here. When Sagarin compiled his dream six-team sectional lineup, there were exactly 384 teams in the state, which divides perfectly into both 6 teams and 64 sectionals. You may note that there were 393 teams who participated in this year's state tournament, so there were several sectionals that had seven teams; I tried as best I could to add teams to sectionals in the spirit that Sagarin had created them.
In addition, and I didn't realize this until after I had already made the draw and started simulating games, there is one school that no longer exists: Gary Mann closed after last school year. So there is one five-team sectional – it would have been easy to plug in one of the newbies, but there wasn't one in the area, and I didn't feel like rejiggering the entire field to give Gary a six-team sectional. (I know ... slacker.)
All of these outcomes were determined on a neutral court; the nature of Indiana high school basketball is such that, in 98% of the cases, home-court advantage and a quarter will get you a cup of coffee. But there were a couple of outcomes that would have swung the other way had the game been played on a team's home court. Not enough to affect the outcome of the whole tournament, but some games might have panned out differently.
Anyway, special thanks to Jeff Sagarin and calpreps.com for everything in compiling this. Below is a hypothetical scenario of how the entire tournament would have played out if Indiana still had a single-class tournament.
SECTIONAL # 1
SB Adams 58, SB Clay 57
SB St. Joseph's 49, Mish. Marian 44
SB Washington 70, SB Riley 66
SB Adams 52, SB St. Joseph's 46
SB Washington 63, SB Adams 60
SECTIONAL # 2
Elkhart Memorial 61, Jimtown 37
Penn 63, Elkhart Central 39
Mishawaka 65, Elkhart Christian 30
Mishawaka 56, Concord 51
Penn 58, Elkhart Memorial 56
Penn 51, Mishawaka 42
SECTIONAL # 3
Lakeland 53, Angola 45
Prairie Heights 57, Fremont 54
Hamilton 63, Howe Military 45
Lakeland 60, Prairie Heights 40
Lakeland 70, Hamilton 34
SECTIONAL # 4
East Chicago 71, Hammond Noll 43
Hammond Gavit 47, Whiting 34
Hammond Clark 59, Hammond 57
East Chicago 65, Hammond Gavit 40
East Chicago 68, Hammond Clark 51
SECTIONAL # 5
Michigan City 57, Westville 48
S. Central 61, Marquette Cath. 44
LaPorte 68, New Prairie 51
Michigan City 58, S. Central 48
LaPorte 57, Michigan City 56
SECTIONAL # 6
Gary Roosevelt 64, River Forest 29
Gary Wirt 58, Hobart 50
Gary Roosevelt 78, Lake Station 33
Gary Roosevelt 55, Gary Wirt 54
SECTIONAL # 7
Wawasee 56, Northridge 50
Fairfield 62, Bethany Christian 40
Westview 59, Goshen 54
Wawasee 51, Fairfield 43
Wawasee 63, Westview 49
SECTIONAL # 8
Munster 66, Gary West 58
Hammond Morton 60, Griffith 51
Highland 68, Calumet 39
Munster 65, Hammond Morton 43
Munster 53, Highland 47
SECTIONAL # 9
Wash Twp 50, Morgan Twp 46
Chesterton 64, Portage 46
Valparaiso 62, Wheeler 41
Chesterton 67, Wash Twp 44
Valparaiso 57, Chesterton 47
SECTIONAL #10
Lake Central 64, Hanover Central 47
Andrean 66, Crown Point 54
Merrillville 76, Gary Wallace 50
Andrean 63, Lake Central 53
Merrillville 64, Andrean 59
SECTIONAL #11
Bremen 61, LaVille 48
NorthWood 58, Glenn 49
Plymouth 56, Triton 35
NorthWood 66, Bremen 48
NorthWood 53, Plymouth 52
SECTIONAL #12
East Noble 66, Lakewood Park 47
DeKalb 54, Leo 44
Eastside 56, Garrett 48
DeKalb 46, East Noble 43
DeKalb 52, Eastside 37
SECTIONAL #13
Columbia City 64, Churubusco 40
Whitko 61, Central Noble 50
Warsaw 55, West Noble 49
Columbia City 66, Whitko 41
Columbia City 53, Warsaw 46
SECTIONAL #14
Lowell 57, North Newton 56
Boone Grove 66, Kouts 43
Hebron 75, Kankakee Valley 59
Boone Grove 55, Lowell 40
Boone Grove 57, Hebron 51
SECTIONAL #15
North Judson 56, Knox 53
Oregon-Davis 55, West Central 46
Winamac 56, LaCrosse 47
Oregon-Davis 52, North Judson 45
Oregon-Davis 63, Winamac 43
SECTIONAL #16
Caston 51, Culver 48
Tipp. Valley 62, Rochester 61
Culver Military 60, Argos 50
Tipp. Valley 61, Caston 41
Tipp. Valley 66, Culver Military 49
SECTIONAL #17
FW Snider 61, Carroll (FW) 49
FW Concordia 67, FW Northrop 55
FW North 68, FW Dwenger 53
FW Snider 64, FW Concordia 56
FW North 71, FW Snider 69
SECTIONAL #18
Heritage 60, FW Keystone 34
FW Harding 70, Woodlan 47
FW Blackhawk 55, New Haven 53
FW Harding 56, Heritage 45
FW Harding 63, FW Blackhawk 54
SECTIONAL #19
FW Elmhurst 69, FW Canterbury 51
FW Wayne 61, FW Luers 57
Homestead 63, FW South 60
FW Wayne 66, FW Elmhurst 61
Homestead 64, FW Wayne 57
SECTIONAL #20
Huntington North 67, Southwood 51
Wabash 56, Manchester 55
Northfield 68, White's 45
Huntington North 81, Wabash 46
Huntington North 71, Northfield 37
SECTIONAL #21
Tri-County 60, North White 36
Rensselaer 61, Frontier 56
Twin Lakes 58, South Newton 50
Rensselaer 55, Tri-County 50
Twin Lakes 59, Rensselaer 58
SECTIONAL #22
Maconaquah 76, Pioneer 50
Peru 47, Cass 41
Logansport 67, North Miami 46
Peru 62, Maconaquah 57
Logansport 57, Peru 51
SECTIONAL #23
Norwell 46, Adams Central 31
Bluffton 67, Southern Wells 54
Bellmont 56, South Adams 55
Norwell 49, Bluffton 30
Norwell 51, Bellmont 38
SECTIONAL #24
Marion 65, Mississinewa 45
Lakeview Chr. 63, Blackford 60
Oak Hill 58, Eastbrook 57
Marion 79, Lakeview Chr. 44
Marion 72, Oak Hill 43
SECTIONAL #25
McCutcheon 53, W. Lafayette 47
Lafayette CC 81, Delphi 53
Harrison 61, Lafayette Jeff 59
McCutcheon 62, Lafayette CC 60
McCutcheon 51, Harrison (WL) 50
SECTIONAL #26
Tipton 53, Taylor 50
Kokomo 61, Tri-Central 57
Northwestern 80, Eastern 56
Kokomo 64, Tipton 50
Kokomo 62, Northwestern 60
SECTIONAL #27
Western 61, Clinton Prairie 42
Frankfort 64, Rossville 61
Carroll (F) 55, Clinton Central 51
Western 68, Frankfort 51
Western 58, Carroll (F) 45
SECTIONAL #28
Anderson Highland 67, Elwood 51
Frankton 63, Wes-Del 55
Madison-Grant 54, Alexandria 50
Madison-Grant 65, Liberty Christian 47
Anderson Highland 61, Frankton 59
Anderson Highland 60, Madison-Grant 53
SECTIONAL #29
Benton Central 59, Seeger 38
Covington 47, N. Vermillion 41
Fountain Central 57, Attica 55
Benton Central 52, Covington 40
Benton Central 59, Fountain Central 42
SECTIONAL #30
Union City 66, Randolph Southern 55
Winchester 50, Wapahani 46
Jay County 62, Monroe Central 50
Winchester 54, Union City 53
Jay County 55, Winchester 42
SECTIONAL #31
Yorktown 51, Delta 43
Muncie Central 76, Muncie South 53
Muncie Burris 62, Cowan 41
Muncie Central 58, Yorktown 46
Muncie Central 66, Muncie Burris 40
SECTIONAL #32
Noblesville 56, Carmel 54
University 56, Sheridan 46
Westfield 58, Hamilton Hts. 45
Hamilton SE 60, Westfield 54
Noblesville 63, University 38
Noblesville 60, Hamilton SE 54
SECTIONAL #33
Crawfordsville 58, Western Boone 57
Tri-West 60, Southmont 48
North Mont. 60, Lebanon 47
Tri-West 63, Crawfordsville 50
North Montgomery 54, Tri-West 52
SECTIONAL #34
Shenandoah 66, Daleville 44
Anderson 71, Mt. Vernon (F) 40
Pendleton Hts. 61, Lapel 57
Anderson 71, Shenandoah 52
Anderson 65, Pendleton Hts. 50
SECTIONAL #35
Tri 57, Hagerstown 56
New Castle 73, Cambridge City 36
Blue River 85, Union (M) 44
New Castle 66, Tri 36
New Castle 60, Blue River 52
SECTIONAL #36
Brebeuf 73, Broad Ripple 67
I. Washington 67, Park Tudor 65
N. Central 71, Pike 69
N. Central 80, Zionsville 48
Brebeuf 80, I. Washington 59
N. Central 76, Brebeuf 59
SECTIONAL #37
Arlington 64, Heritage Christian 52
Lawrence North 73, Chatard 41
I. Cathedral 55, Lawrence Central 50
I. Cathedral 72, I. Howe 55
Lawrence North 71, Arlington 52
Lawrence North 66, I. Cathedral 44
SECTIONAL #38
Ben Davis 81, Speedway 48
Ritter 71, Covenant Chr. 63
I. Northwest 64, Brownsburg 59
Ben Davis 82, Ritter 53
Ben Davis 67, I. Northwest 63
SECTIONAL #39
Rushville 78, Morton Memorial 45
Morristown 62, Greenfield-Central 60
Knightstown 62, Eastern Hancock 44
Rushville 57, Morristown 56
Knightstown 60, Rushville 53
SECTIONAL #40
Southport 68, Indpls Tech 67
Roncalli 63, Manual 59
Scecina 65, Indiana Deaf 48
Roncalli 65, Southport 61
Roncalli 59, Scecina 45
SECTIONAL #41
Centerville 55, Union County 45
Connersville 73, Northeastern 40
Franklin County 52, Richmond 47
Connersville 63, Centerville 46
Connersville 57, Franklin County 48
SECTIONAL #42
TH North 72, Rockville 45
Northview 53, Riverton Parke 43
South Vermillion 53, Turkey Run 51
TH North 60, Northview 47
TH North 69, South Vermillion 44
SECTIONAL #43
Beech Grove 50, Triton Central 35
Franklin Central 64, New Palestine 42
Warren Central 67, Indpls Lutheran 34
Franklin Central 58, Beech Grove 36
Warren Central 52, Franklin Central 48
SECTIONAL #44
Danville 68, Cloverdale 64
South Putnam 56, North Putnam 55
Cascade 58, Greencastle 56
Danville 64, South Putnam 48
Danville 62, Cascade 49
SECTIONAL #45
Monrovia 58, Eminence 56
Avon 64, Mooresville 44
Decatur Central 78, Plainfield 68
Avon 77, Monrovia 40
Avon 70, Decatur Central 65
SECTIONAL #46
Franklin 71, Indian Creek 49
Center Grove 64, Greenwood 62
Perry Meridian 53, Whiteland 46
Center Grove 72, Franklin 66
Center Grove 65, Perry Meridian 52
SECTIONAL #47
Shelbyville 70, Columbus North 52
Southwestern (Shelby) 61, Waldron 56
Hauser 71, Edinburgh 47
Shelbyville 74, Southwestern (Shelby) 47
Shelbyville 67, Hauser 53
SECTIONAL #48
Greensburg 57, Jac-Cen-Del 51
North Decatur 62, Oldenburg 40
Batesville 72, South Decatur 44
Greensburg 53, North Decatur 45
Batesville 61, Greensburg 51
SECTIONAL #49
Clay City 73, TH Holy Cross 50
TH South 67, West Vigo 53
Sullivan 55, North Central 52
Sullivan 54, Shakamak 49
TH South 62, Clay City 46
TH South 57, Sullivan 52
SECTIONAL #50
Blgtn. South 67, Blgtn. North 42
Owen Valley 62, Brown Co. 50
Martinsville 57, Edgewood 55
Blgtn. South 65, Owen Valley 48
Blgtn. South 65, Martinsville 50
SECTIONAL #51
East Central 56, Lawrenceburg 50
S. Dearborn 52, Rising Sun 45
South Ripley 61, Milan 51
East Central 40, S. Dearborn 39
East Central 52, S. Ripley 44
SECTIONAL #52
Bloomfield 47, Linton 44
Union (Dugger) 55, White River 50
Eastern Greene 45, North Daviess 43
Bloomfield 52, Union (Dugger) 36
Bloomfield 40, Eastern Greene 38
SECTIONAL #53
Columbus East 56, Brownstown 53
Seymour 77, Trinity Lutheran 32
Jennings County 72, Medora 39
Jennings County 71, Crothersville 49
Columbus East 56, Seymour 55
Columbus East 61, Jennings County 53
SECTIONAL #54
Madison 70, Southwestern (Hanover) 46
Charlestown 57, New Washington 44
Madison Shawe 54, Switzerland Co. 42
Madison 71, Charlestown 45
Madison 60, Madison Shawe 51
SECTIONAL #55
Washington 72, Vincennes Rivet 44
South Knox 63, North Knox 58
Vincennes Lincoln 57, Washington Catholic 24
Washington 69, South Knox 49
Vincennes Lincoln 58, Washington 53
SECTIONAL #56
Paoli 50, W. Washington 48
Orleans 60, Mitchell 50
BNL 73, Springs Valley 55
Orleans 65, Paoli 39
Orleans 60, BNL 57
SECTIONAL #57
Scottsburg 69, Borden 60
Henryville 61, Austin 58
Eastern (Pekin) 67, Salem 57
Scottsburg 77, Henryville 56
Scottsburg 79, Eastern (Pekin) 69
SECTIONAL #58
Southridge 61, Shoals 45
Barr-Reeve 43, Loogootee 42
Jasper 61, NE Dubois 39
Barr-Reeve 47, Southridge 45
Jasper 48, Barr-Reeve 46
SECTIONAL #59
Jeffersonville 75, Silver Creek 47
Providence 58, Restoration Christian 38
New Albany 75, Clarksville 56
New Albany 74, Christian Academy 40
Jeffersonville 64, Providence 45
Jeffersonville 71, New Albany 62
SECTIONAL #60
Princeton 57, Pike Central 46
Boonville 54, Wood Memorial 51
Gibson Southern 48, Tecumseh 40
Princeton 57, Boonville 46
Gibson Southern 45, Princeton 40
SECTIONAL #61
Crawford Co. 61, N. Harrison 57
Corydon 61, Lanesville 53
Floyd Central 64, South Central 58
Corydon 67, Crawford Co. 53
Corydon 74, Floyd Central 54
SECTIONAL #62
Central 64, N. Posey 39
Mt. Vernon 64, New Harmony 36
Mater Dei 65, Reitz 62
Central 68, Mt. Vernon 47
Central 60, Mater Dei 59
SECTIONAL #63
South Spencer 59, Tell City 56
Heritage Hills 60, Perry Central 58
Forest Park 90, Cannelton 38
South Spencer 62, Heritage Hills 49
Forest Park 68, South Spencer 57
SECTIONAL #64
Bosse 77, Day 47
North 67, Castle 64
Harrison 55, Memorial 54
Bosse 75, North 65
Bosse 64, Harrison 56
REGIONAL #1
East Chicago 64, Gary Roosevelt 50
Valparaiso 57, Merrillville 51
Valparaiso 56, East Chicago 52
REGIONAL #2
Benton Central 51, Oregon-Davis 50
LaPorte 61, Twin Lakes 56
LaPorte 55, Benton Central 54
REGIONAL #3
Huntington North 70, SB Washington 57
Penn 48, Columbia City 42
Huntington North 53, Penn 52
REGIONAL #4
Tippecanoe Valley 58, Boone Grove 49
Munster 52, McCutcheon 51
Munster 59, Tippecanoe Valley 51
REGIONAL #5
FW North 72, Homestead 69
Norwell 48, FW Harding 47
FW North 58, Norwell 49
REGIONAL #6
Lakeland 45, DeKalb 43
NorthWood 55, Wawasee 54
NorthWood 54, Lakeland 53
REGIONAL #7
Anderson 61, New Castle 52
Logansport 66, Anderson Highland 55
Anderson 63, Logansport 54
REGIONAL #8
Muncie Central 62, Western 49
Marion 59, Kokomo 52
Muncie Central 57, Marion 55
REGIONAL #9
Bloomington South 61, Columbus East 50
Shelbyville 62, Batesville 56
Bloomington South 59, Shelbyville 52
REGIONAL #10
Lawrence North 72, Ben Davis 52
North Central 67, Warren Central 56
Lawrence North 67, North Central 59
REGIONAL #11
Connersville 62, Knightstown 57
Jay County 48, East Central 44
Connersville 58, Jay County 50
REGIONAL #12
Noblesville 64, Roncalli 46
Center Grove 66, Avon 65
Noblesville 67, Center Grove 58
REGIONAL #13
Danville 59, TH South 54
TH North 57, North Montgomery 50
TH North 60, Danville 52
REGIONAL #14
Corydon 68, Scottsburg 66
Jeffersonville 73, Madison 60
Jeffersonville 74, Corydon 56
REGIONAL #15
Orleans 57, Jasper 52
Vincennes 53, Bloomfield 35
Vincennes 57, Orleans 51
REGIONAL #16
Ev. Bosse 59, Ev. Central 56
Forest Park 57, Gibson Southern 47
Ev. Bosse 69, Forest Park 65
SEMISTATE #1
Valparaiso 63, LaPorte 45
Huntington North 58, Munster 53
Valparaiso 55, Huntington North 54
SEMISTATE #2
FW North 69, NorthWood 67
Anderson 59, Muncie Central 58
Anderson 74, FW North 66
SEMISTATE #3
Lawrence North 65, Bloomington South 50
Noblesville 62, Connersville 50
Lawrence North 64, Noblesville 48
SEMISTATE #4
Jeffersonville 67, TH North 55
Ev. Bosse 61, Vincennes Lincoln 60
Jeffersonville 74, Ev. Bosse 61
FINAL FOUR
Anderson 57, Valparaiso 54
Lawrence North 70, Jeffersonville 57
Lawrence North 69, Anderson 51
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