So, the Celestine match last night came and went.
I believe that these events come down to 10 percent skill and 90 percent luck - we can quibble on the numbers, but if you believe that the mix is any closer than 20-80, you're crazy - and here's why. Assuming that you have your gun sighted correctly, and you've spent time "patterning" it - i.e., practicing your shooting to see where exactly the BBs should spread out on the board - and you have everything down to the tiniest fraction of a millimeter, then the smallest change in humidity or a slight gust of wind can throw your pattern all to hell.
It was a relatively uninspiring night to start with. I was in rounds 33, 35 and 37, and my boards were all rejected. I had a pretty good spread of shot on my boards each time, but as is often the case at these things, I had my X in the wrong spot.
I was a couple of shots into my last board on round 39 when - at long last! - I noted through the scope that it looked like I had something to be excited about. The circle I had marked around my cross was filling up with BBs, and it looked like at least one was pretty close to dead center, best I could tell. I finished my round and went inside the building to wait on the result. (Don't know if you've noticed, but there's a lot of waiting at these things.)
The board runner brought all the boards in from that round. Judge looked at the first one (out) ... the second one (out) ... then mine ...

First, some background:
This board is approximately 6.25 inches by 7.25 inches. My name is in the upper left corner, the number of shots I am taking is written in the upper right. In red pen just below says, "R39 P3" - this means that this board was shot in round 39, from post #3.
The black circle on the left hand side of the board, just past halfway down - about the size of a quarter, to give you a sense of perspective of the sizes we're dealing with - is a mark for me to know exactly where the cross that I've cut onto the board earlier tonight is. (Again - this is from 47 yards - 141 feet away. Give or take.) This is the cross that I am most interested in - a dead center shot here, and you've probably won a good portion of beef. Graze the center of it, and you'll probably still take pork home.
The red circle on the right hand side is stamped on there to denote that the cross inside of it is the half-pot circle. I have marked that cross with pencil as well, to indicate that that is my half-pot cross. Dead center there, and you've won the money that everyone put in to win half-pot (an extra $1 per board). Last night, it was $176, which means that $176 went to one lucky shooter, while the other $176 went toward the community club. Sort of a sucker bet, really.
So, your opinion of the board above? Do you think my excitement and subsequent expectations went fulfilled?
The answer is no. Here is an enlarged picture of the cross on my board.

You see, just below where the lines intersect, the BB embedded in the vertical cut? The distance between the top of it and the point where the lines meet - and likely some meat at the end of the night - is about one-twelfth of an inch, or 2.12 millimeters. To have been in the running for a half beef, the distance from the intersect to the middle of that BB is 2.5/16 of an inch, or 3.97 millimeters.
Which brings us to the other marking on the full image of the board a few paragraphs up:
The two red markings with a grease pen about three-quarters toward the bottom of the board mean "out." That's how they mark "out" boards at Celestine and most other places. At some places, the judge will scribble "out" on the board. At Ireland, they stamp the word "OUT" on it, which seems very formal.
And so the difference for me on this night from going home empty-handed versus going home with some meat is a hair over two millimeters. As I said, 10 percent skill, 90 percent luck.

